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Monday February 12, 2007 7:18 pm

Has Robyn Troup Won American Idol: Season 6 Before It’s Even Started?

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Posted by Rob Stevens Categories: Music, Prime Time, Reality, FOX, American Idol, Features, Gossip, Spoilers

Robyn TroupAnyone who knows me has probably heard me rail on the “parade of mediocrity” that is the audition process for American Idol. I’m just the kind of guy that thinks that to get your fifteen minutes of fame, you must be able to do something significant to contribute to ... something. Looking like a jackass and not being able to sing don’t count.

But that’s neither here nor there. Tomorrow starts the first round of hopefuls that were talented enough to get to the Hollywood stage of the competition, and this is normally where I start paying attention to the show. Idol has the ability to make stars out of even non-winners, and in fact, not winning could end up being a major opportunity for you. Kelly Clarkson notwithstanding, some of the biggest names to come out of Idol are Jennifer Hudson and her meteoric rise to capture a Golden Globe and probably an Oscar, and Season 5 finalist Chris Daughtry who’s debut album just went platinum (and is a great rock album).

Which led me to have an interesting conversation with my wife last night. How is it that the audience has been getting it so wrong, since they are the ones making this decision? The voting should be roughly analogous to how sales should go, right? And yet, winner Ruben Studdard falters while Clay Aiken makes out like a bandit. What’s going on?


My hypothesis is that only Season 1 of Idol was “pure”, meaning that the producers and the judges themselves didn’t try to steer the voting too much. In later seasons, the producers and judges learned to distrust the voting audience and tried to find ways to steer votes. Simon Cowell in particular makes his attempts to guide the voting rather transparent ... after all, he’s the one with money on the line when he has to package the winner for a mass audience.

Unfortunately, the agenda with the vote steering could be completely unrelated to who will be the bigger star, or the most marketable personality. Anyone putting on a TV show knows that you need to deliver a story, and the better the story, the better the ratings. So how do you do that with a reality TV show? That’s where all the “back home” and “behind the scenes” vignettes come into play. How else can you explain the inexplicable win of Fantasia Barrino, other than that the audience bought into her story and wanted to reward her. One might even suggest that there were other reasons too, such as wanting to add more diversity to the list of winners. It probably doesn’t go quite that far, but you never know. The vote steering can have the opposite effect at times, however. If enoguh fans of someone like, say, Jennifer Hudson, can be steered to another choice (and if they feel she’s safe enough to continue), you end up with the results “shocker” that we’re all so familiar with.

At the start of the finals round of Season 5, I told my wife that who will win American Idol that year depended on what kind of album Cowell wanted to produce. If he wanted another true pop star, it would be Kat McPhee. If he wanted to try his hand with a rock album, Chris Daughtry was a lock. Of course the joke was on me (and Cowell) as it turns out that Taylor Hicks was an unstoppable force from Day 1. Of course, Daughtry and McPhee both have hits on Top 40 radio right now, and I’ve yet to hear anything memorable from Hicks (though that could be due to the stations I listen to). Hicks win was partly due to a strong fan base back home (and loyal voters), and partly because of how many votes he was able to pick up from departing finalists. But arguably, the fans had their minds made up about Hicks from the get-go adding more to the argument over how “pure” the contest really is.

That brings us to Season 6, and the story this time around is that one of the Hollywood Hopefuls has a gigantic and arguably unfair advantage going into the voting (should she make it past the semi-finals). Robyn Troup has confirmed that she auditioned for Season 6, but could not say if she made it to Hollywood ... which of course means that she did (her NDA wouldn’t bar her from saying that she didn’t make it). If you don’t know who Robyn Troup is, you probably didn’t watch the Grammy Awards last night, where Robyn won a contest to sing with Justin Timberlake on the show and wowed the audience. If Robyn makes it to the Final 12, what are the odds that she won’t win the entire thing? I suppose that depends on the story they want to tell, or if the audience has their mind made up at the beginning.

Addendum: As I’ve mentioned in previous blog posts, the producers have ways to steer the voting, from lighting and song availability in the “genre weeks”, down to who performs first and last. If you think that the performance order is random, you’re kidding yourself ... it’s no surprise when one of the best performances of each week is the last to perform. “Send the audience home happy” is one of the old adages of showmanship. When they get to the finals, pay close attention to background and lighting for the performances, and see if you can pick out who the people behind the show want to win.

Also, as commenter Sue mentions below, I failed to acknowledge that Hicks’ album went platinum one month after its release, though I credit my omission to the fact that it did so before releasing a single, which is likely why I hadn’t heard anything from it on the radio. And to clarify, I’m not pointing out Hicks as an example of the fans getting it wrong, but more of a point to show that the judges failed to sway the fans away from Hicks. I’ve updated the post with a link to my blog post from last season explaining how DialIdol.com had Hicks picked to win by a landslide.

(You can find all the American Idol 6 posts here.)


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Comments:

One very important point is that Hicks album has been SHIPPED platinum NOT SOLD platinum.  Hicks has only sold a little more than 600,000 CDs since its release while DAUGHTRY has SOLD 1.5 million CDs.

Although Taylor won American Idol, it appears that the REAL winner in the REAL world is Chris Daughtry.

And one day someone will write an article about how a smaller, dedicated fanbase gives the win to a contestant rather than the majority vote. AI voting system is flawed. If you have an organized fanbase willing to spend good money to buy cellphones, and text vote over and over, with software on the computer to multivote for your candidate on the phone while tying the phone lines of a contestant that is a threat to your idol, you will get him the win. But that doesn’t mean that in the real world you can get his CD sold. Ergo, Hicks failure to sell his CD while Daughtry’s gone multiplatinum and is still in the top Billboard charts. Daughtry had the bigger fanbase, but Hicks had the most organized, fanatical one.

When AI ammends its voting system to limit the gargantuan amount of votes an AI fan can submit, then it will be a fair win, but they won’t because they like saying that millions and millions of votes came in. Dancing with the Stars, and Rockstar limit the amount of votes per person to make it fairer.

Comments above - laughable… can’t believe the one person used the word fanatical.  The word does apply to some Daughtry fans also.  This is like the pots calling the kettles black. 

Real winner in the real world?  The winner of AI was Taylor Hicks, period..  Maybe one day everyone will go on with their lives.  Different people like different music, and the world still goes around!

You people tend to forget that Chris Daughtry was a few times in the bottom 2, almost ousted earlier while Taylor Hicks was never in the bottom 2 or 3 singers.  I find it hard to believe that Taylor’s fans have that much power to tie up phone lines, etc. to give Taylor the win.  He won fair and square and I think that is what is still making people angry. Daughtry is good, but not that good.  Taylor’s misfortune currently is not releasing a single right away and he is now the horse trailing a tad behind.  But he’ll catch up… he’s distinctive and memorable, Daughtry’s sound is so much like every other voice you hear on the airwaves….as far as I am concerned there will never be another group of Idol finalists as Season 5… they all broke the mold!

Obviously Yo didn’t watch the show or else he or she would have realized that Chris was in the bottom 2 once before he was booted not multiple times.  Kat was in the bottom 3 twice and Elliott was there 3 times.

Taylor fans cheated and that is why he won with their using different time zones to vote as well as legit but fanatical use of purchasing GO phones just to vote as well.

I am sure that TPTB are very glad they signed Chris Daughtry for he is obviously saving Season 5 from being the lauging stock of all the seasons since the winner, Taylor Hicks, can’t cut it and will probably have the LOWEST selling CD of all the AI winners.  Now that they have Daughtry, TPTB can just sit back and relax for they know they have a multi-platinum Idol from Season 5 since Taylor obviously stinks in sales.

Maritza: Wow, you must be a very high strung Daughtry loving sour grapes kind of person!  Good for you!  That’s what made last season so much fun was to listen to all of you Daughtry heads get so hot headed!  Hicks won fair and square, get over it!  Daughtry’s ahead now, but Hicks won’t be far behind after he is let go from the Idol bubble after this season!  Now go and wallow in some Daughtry rock blaring from your cd player….

How else can you explain the inexplicable win of Fantasia Barrino, other than that the audience bought into her story and wanted to reward her. One might even suggest that there were other reasons too, such as wanting to add more diversity to the list of winners.
————————————————

How else? Because she was the best performer of her season. Did you fail to notice her 4 grammy nominations, all her critical acclaim by industry heavy weights, her record breaking hit songs, or her multiple awards won for being…. SO FANTASTIC?! The music industry does not pass out these honors (and many more than she has received) for being a “story” that people buy into.  am so sick and tired of people downplaying her successes!

I like your perspective on the Idol “business” as we must never forget that it is primarily a business!  I do however think that Ms. Troup would actually lose votes because she already has her ticket into the industry.  I believe the voters really care about giving someone they connect with a shot.  I am one of those fanatic voters who went crazy for Taylor and voted for the first time.  I will buy his music and attend his concerts for years to come.  I know lots about music and voices but it was WHO he is that won me over.  He really loves music for the music and has his own style and take on everything.  I don’t feel his album, which I like a great deal (LOVE, “The Right Place”), will be the end of his story.  I look for far more interesting and unique things from him in the future.  His love for music and how it makes you feel is contagious and he is very refeshing in the music world where we are contatntly given cookie-cutter artists.  Numbers don’t count for everything—-longevity matters.  Many of the artists honored at the Grammy Awards were NOT household names but had their own niche and dedicated fans and Taylor fits into that category.

Has Robyn Troup Won American Idol: Season 6 Before It’s Even Started?

If she has a half decent voice, very thin, Simon will love her.

It was printed in a UK article on the net that Carrie Underwood had won season four crown even while we here in the states were still in the ‘so-called’ voting process.

That article found its way back to the Idol message boards, and of course the article was removed immediately from the UK site.

Just one more thing about Idol that makes you go hmmm.

CJ,

Hicks is sooo far behind Chris that he will NEVER catch.  Don’t kid yourself.

Chris has sold nearly a million more than Taylor.  By the end of 2007, Chris will probably will have sold triple to what Taylor has sold.  Taylor will be lucky to have sold the million CDs that the record company rushed to certify him as.  They certified him as platinum so it isn’t embarrasing for him when he does do interviews. 

Simon has gotten his vindication.

I agree with most of your blog.  I too have been an avid AI fan, and yet always seemed to wonder how America can get it so wrong every year (Kelly Clarkson not included).  I have a complimentary thesis:  Because it seems that the Southern states are doing most of the voting, a singer from the South will always win. 

Look at the past winners:
Kelly Clarkson - Texas
Ruben Studdard - Alabama
Fantasia Burrino - North Carolina
Carrie Underwood - Oklahoma/Tennesee
Taylor Hicks - Alabama

Everyone is from below the Mason-Dixon line.  This tells me that the strongest voting comes from the South.  This makes sense, since no other region in the country is more cohesive than the South.  Arguably this goes as far back as the Civil War.  Hundreds of years later, the difference between the South and the rest of the country is still apparent. (One need only drive from the North to the South to see the obvious differences.  And I don’t mean geographic differences either.) It’s possible that the Southern states are still feeling insecure about their loss (and resulting insecurities) after the Civil War, and this gives all the states from the South something in common.  Whatever the case, people from the South “stick together” moreso than any other region in the country.  People from the South are always proud to announce they’re from the South (have you ever heard anyone say, “I am a proud Northerner”?), and are always quick to support a fellow Southerner.

(Along these lines, I would say that Hawaii is next.  They too have some complex of being different than all other 49 states.  This is why contestants from Hawaii always last longer than they should.  However, it’s never enough to propel them to victory.  One state’s votes are not enough to overcome the votes from all of the South.) 

Anyway, this Southern bias might help explain why other supposed deserving winners just don’t quite garner enough votes at the end.  This list includes Tamyra Gray (Maryland), LaToya London (California), Katherine McPhee (California), and the biggest miss of all Jennifer Hudson (Chicago, IL).

Further analysis shows that out of the 15 contestants that have finished in the top 3 the past 5 years, only ONE person (Kat McPhee) has been from somewhere other than the South.  Jasmine Trias finished 3rd in Season Three, but I’ve already explained that Hawaii is just as polarizing as the South.  Elliot Yamin was born in Cali, but has lived in Virginia since 11. 

No offense, but I find it hard to believe that the South has all the best singers in the land.  Based on the Law of Averages, there should be at least a few people from non-Southern states who make the top 3.  But 1 out of 15??? 

What else does this mean?  Does this mean that the South watches more TV than the rest of the country?  Does the South have more access to telephones and texting?  I don’t know, but at the very least one can conclude that there is an obvious Southern bias when it comes to American Idol voting. 

So when this year’s elimination come down to someone from the South and someone not from the South…bet on the Southerner.

Looks like the Idol let the Idol get away.  Robyn Troup was great on the Grammys.

I just watched the Hollywood round of American Idol. They CUT Robyn! They cut a lot of other good singers looks like. It’d be nice if America could vote for Hollywood week too.

smart…    robyn troup was ELIMINATED frm AI last night.

Did anyone even see the whole yahoo talent show thing? I followed it from the beginning and I would’ve never voted for Robyn. Out of the 6 clips I saw of her singing (4 on the yahoo auditions, 1 on grammy night, and 1 on the american idol clip) I didn’t think she sounded good at all. During the yahoo voting, I read the comments of voters on all the contestants and figured she would win. Not because of talent, but because of popularity. All the comments were people from her high school just trying to show support. If you have a whole high school and everyone else related to people from that highschool voting, you would get sooooo many votes. I don’t think she sounded bad on the grammy’s, I just didn’t think it was good.

Whats up robyn this is rafael we met in hollywood i am denise jackson brother hope you remember me just wanna say good job shorty keep it up email me if you get a chance ponomo4u@yahoo.com

Hey robyn this is malcolm we met in hollywood at the grammys. i was with B5 and i sung to you i hope you remember me cause i will never forget you. if you will e-mail me at daoneandonlyball_08@yahoo.com

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